Public investments needed in improving rice productivity: III

By Sosimo Ma. Pablico

So what now are the challenges to the “good news”?

Dr. Castillo mentioned that along with investments in improving rice productivity, efforts must be exerted to manage the denominator of the rice-population equation, which is rice consumption of the population.  Rice production is the numerator in calculating self-sufficiency, according to her.

She noted that over a 36-year period from 1970 to 2006, the Philippine population increased from 37 million to 87 million but rice production increased only 2.88 times.  During the same period, average per capita rice consumption also increased by 37 kg per capita or 45 percent from 82 kg to 119 kg.  In contrast, area harvested increased by only 1.34 times.

Considering the recent concerns about climate change, she said, the future weather conditions for rice in the Philippines is an important parameter to think about.

On the average, 20 typhoons visit the country every year.  Farmers usually attribute “good harvest” to “good weather” and “bad harvest” to “bad weather”. Research data  have shown that farmers reported the frequency of bad harvests about four times out of 10 harvests.  In some provinces, it is even six out of 10.

In the light of this “weather-weather” phenomenon, she said we should consider the following assessment by Peter Bellwood: “Rice is most at home in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, and parts of India, Sri Lanka and southern China.  In these fortunate countries, rice may be raised year after year without climatic modification.  The Philippines lies on the outer circle and is considered belonging to important rice producing areas where at least one parameter of climate is frequently less than ideal for successful crops.”

Dr.  Castillo also cited the following findings of Mahabub Hossain and Josephine Narciso who examined the geographical patterns of production in the Philippines:  There are only five surplus rice production  regions  in the country – Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Central Mindanao.  On the other hand, 10 are deficit regions.  Among the country’s 77 provinces, 46 are rice-deficit provinces while only 31 have surplus production. 

More than half (56.4 percent) of the country’s population are in the deficit regions and provinces.  On the other hand, the population in all the provinces without exception increased from 1980 to 2001.  Of the 46 rice-deficit provinces, 38 provinces or 83 percent have been deficit provinces since 1980. In these deficit provinces, rice farming households kept 42 percent of their harvest for food, while those in  high surplus provinces kept  more than 20 percent of their harvest for home consumption.

“This suggests a high household rice-security orientation even among rice-producing households.  They need to produce so many surpluses to fill the gap in deficit regions,” Dr. Castillo said.

Finally, she noted that the national rice self-sufficiency target is a moving target and, hence, rice production needs to grow.  To illustrate this, she said the Philippines produced 13.5 million metric tons (MT) of rough rice in 2003 while the target was 14.2 million MT.  In 2004 the country needed 15.4 million MT to be self-sufficient but produced only 14.938 million MT or 97 percent sufficiency.

“This  means rice production needs to grow at 10.65 percent. Just like Alice in Wonderland, “We have to keep running just to stay in place’,” Dr. Castillo said.

(Readers may reach columnist at spablico@yahoo.com. For past columns, click http://sundaypunch.prepys.com/archives/category/opinion/harvest-time/ For reactions to this column, click “Send MESSAGES, OPINIONS, COMMENTS” on default page.)

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