Punchline
When 1+ 1 becomes 3
By Ermin Garcia Jr.
FROM the grapevine, I heard that the national headquarters of the Liberal Party is in a quandary on how to deal with the gubernatorial race in Pangasinan.
There is former Cong Mark Cojuangco carrying the banner for the Nationalist People’s Coalition in the province. And, because he announced his intent to contest the governorship post after the end of Guv Spine’s term, it forced Guv Spines and several allies to bolt the party. But that is not the story.
A number of Guv Spines’ allies, particularly in the 5th District stuck with Cong Mark C. and abandoned Guv Spines. Still, it’s not the story.
Guv’s son Pogi, currently federation president of the Liga ng Barangay, is the presumptive candidate of Guv Spines to stop Cong Mark C. in his tracks. But still, that is not the story.
The story is found in the question: Where is the Liberal Party in all these?
* * * * *
REALITIES. What are the seeming realities on the ground?
The LP will certainly not form a coalition with Cong Mark’s NPC because Cong Mark C. already aligned itself early on with VP Binay, a move that initially was a smart thing to do until the LP’s exposed VP Binay’s “Ganito kami noon sa Makati.” Perhaps, looking back, Cong Mark C regrets that move today. But he already rolled the dice.
On one hand, Guv Spines will not likely go out of his way to kiss-and-tell with VP Binay who made it a point to ignore the Guv each time he visited Pangasinan. And more so today, he wishes Cong Mark C will stick it out with VP Binay.
Then, with LPs former giants, former Guv Victor Agabayani and former Alaminos Mayor Nani Braganza, still smarting from their humbling defeat in the hands of Guv Spines, there is simply no one else to carry the LP and Aquino administration’s flag to victory in Pangasinan.
Hence, if LP wants to bet on a possible winnable candidate, it has no choice but to look at Pogi Espino, the son of LP stalwarts’ political nemesis – Guv Spines.
But how will LP even attempt to broach the prospect if Guv Spines feels he doesn’t need the LP to make his son win, especially that he knew that it was the LP that orchestrated the series of harassment that were lined up against him since Day 1 of Guv Vic’s defeat, then Mayor Nani’s.
On the other hand, Guv Spines is a tactical politician who only knows too well that addition is the only mathematical process that is relevant in politics. And, the worst that can happen in an election is to take your opponent for granted, especially not someone as smart as Cong Mark C, who is not wanting in political savvy.
So, to fast track the story, the dream team for the LPs is to hold hands with Guv Spines. Is that possible? Of course, it’s possible! If’ it serves both mutual political interests, even the worst of enemies will dine together. Just watch out for the daggers.
* * * * *
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. But there is one plausible scenario for Guv Spines and his hated LPs to warm up to each other, at least in public.
Guv Spines is party-less. The touted LP coalition includes the Nationalista Party that has no political baggage in Pangasinan. In the same vein, NP also has no one to offer even as a viable candidate for governor. For too long, Pangasinan has been a source of territorial dispute only between the LP and the NPC. The NPs have long been subjugated in Pangasinan.
So what gives for the LP and Guv Spines? The guv can elect to be a member of the NP, and naturally, the NP would only be too happy to name him the provincial chairman. And presuming that the LP-NP coalition is cemented for 2016, voila, we will see Guv Spines (and son Pogi) in the not-so-warm embrace of the LPs. In mathematical terms, this is the only time when 1+1 becomes 3! You have Guv Spines and the NP together, and the LP as one happy family!
But of course, if Guv Spines opts not to take the vacant NP slot, the dilemma of LP remains and the story continues.
* * * * *
MORE LESSONS. If there was on objective that was met by the earthquake drill in Metro Manila and in many parts of the country including Dagupan City, it heightened the awareness about the need to prepare for an earthquake. Not bad.
My only caveat about it is that most have never felt what earthquake is like, much less know what real risks one faces with a Big One. In fact, nobody can best explain what it’s like, not even the victims of the 1990 killer earthquake.
To my mind, there are still two practical lessons that our local government units can pursue in their communities.
First, to arrange free viewing of the movie San Andreas, the disaster film that depicted the worst possible scenario of Big One accompanied by tsunami, in the barangays. Only then will communities appreciate the “Duck-Cover-Hold” response position, the need to learn how to swim and the advantage of having at least one survival kit in a home.
For instance, a very basic survival kit should have a flashlight, a whistle, bottle of water and a roll of medical gauze. The movie will make it easy for households to understand the need for the basic kit otherwise a kit in the house will be treated like another unused household item that can be stacked away and forgotten.
Second, local government units must seek to train more “first aiders” who can help understand how to handle emergency situations, including handling of persons who have difficulty moving as a result of a fall.
Third and certainly not the least important, it is the constant testing of response time of the fire department, police, communications groups, disaster and management teams, medical teams, etc.
While these groups were mobilized for the drill last week, their reaction and response time were not inputted. They simply demonstrated what they could do, not how fast they could respond. So one cannot but wonder, how reliable can they be when The Big One finally strikes.
Take it from the thousands of family members of households who knew what 7.8 magnitude tremor was like in 1990. Absolutely, no one then was prepared for anything close to it but to run, panic and cry. But how prepared can anyone be?
The San Andreas movie described scenarios of a 9.1 magnitude earthquake. Is that possible at all? Of course!
In 1960, Chile was hit by 9.5 magnitude; in 1964, 9 magnitude hit Alaska; in 2004, Indonesia was hit by 9.1 magnitude. Check out Wikipedia on these and other data and you will be astounded to learn what can possibly be the worst that can happen to us.
(For your comments and reactions, please email to: punch.sunday@gmail.com)
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