A PROVINCE-wide survey commissioned by a potential investor in Pangasinan shows an overwhelming lead for incumbent Governor Amado Espino Jr. and Vice Governor Jose Ferdinand Calimlim Jr. of the Nationalist People’s Coalition’s (NPC) over Liberal Party (LP) bets Alaminos Mayor Hernani Braganza and Arturo Lomibao.

Results of the survey on Voters’ Preferences for Provincial and District Positions conducted by Data Advisors Inc. give Espino a 78.5 percent vote while Braganza got 21.1 percent and Calimlim with 74 percent against Lomibao’s 24.9 percent.

At a press conference last week, Prof. Marion Valencia of Data Advisors Inc. said the survey has a plus or minus 2 per cent error margin.

The survey was conducted April 19-25 with 2,500 respondents from the three cities and 44 municipalities in the province. Dagupan City is an independent component city and is not covered in the provincial voting.

Valencia explained that the survey used proportionate and stratified sampling models patterned after the ones being used by Gallup Polls, a prominent polling firm based in the United States. 
 
”It is our estimate that 85 percent of the voting population of Pangasinan (about 1,414,682) will turn out on May 13, that is 1,160,039 voters. Out of that, 76 to 81 percent will cast their votes for Espino while 18-24 percent for Braganza,” said Valencia.

“IRREVERSIBLE”

With just 10 more days to go before the election, Espino’s lead over Braganza seems irreversible, said Valencia.

He said the survey indicates that the voters were not affected by the issues raised against Espino.

The results showed Espino ahead in all districts, the closest gap being in District 1, Braganza’s turf, where the incumbent governor garnered 57 percent against Braganza’s 40 percent.

In Alaminos City, Braganza scored lower with 35.5 percent against Espino’s 61.9 percent and the remaining 2.4 percent still undecided.

The highest percentage garnered by the governor was in District III where Espino scored 89.2 percent against Braganza’s 10.8 percent, followed by District V where Espino scored 87.1 percent and only 12.9 percent for Braganza; District VI with Espino garnering 83.3 percent and Braganza, 16.7 percent; District 4, 82 percent against Braganza’s 13 percent; and District II, 72.6 percent to Braganza’s 10.8 percent.

The survey shows Espino leading in all the towns and cities, except in Labrador where Braganza had 60 percent to Espino’s 40 percent.

LOW AWARENESS

Valencia said the other factor for Espino’s lead is that Braganza is “unknown” among many voters.

“Braganza was hampered by low awareness among voters,” Valencia said.

The firm concluded that aside from the fact that the lead of Espino is irreversible, the endorsement of Braganza by the highest official of the land, President Benigno Aquino III, would not translate into votes.

Meanwhile, the results for the district posts are as follows: First District- Celeste 66.1%, Pulido 31.3%; Second- Bataoil 81.9%, Lokin 18.1%; Fourth- De Venecia 91.3%, Lim 8.7%; Fifth- Cojuangco 91.6, Demetria 8.4%.

Quezon-city based Data Advisors Inc. has been in the business of conducting surveys for 14 years with a long record of poll tracking in different parts of the country.

Valencia said the survey was conducted upon the request of businessman David Sanchez to know the political climate in the province before making substantial investments.—with report from Johanne R. Macob

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