Punchline
Taking stock of politics
By Ermin Garcia Jr.
FOR a change, let’s a take a quick look at the political horizon, both national and local, as it blinks on my radar today.
The Noynoy Aquino magic is being touted today as the factor that canceled all current bets on the presidential derby. Hmmm . . . I think the more appropriate label would simply be “flavor of the month” and not because of what he is but largely because of the very recent national emotional outpouring of devotion to President Cory. If she had not died, Noynoy will just be plain Noynoy today so I’m afraid his starry nights would be eclipsed soon. Only sister Kris and her tactless statements will keep the people talking about the Aquino campaign. Leave it to showbiz talk to survive politics.
The Chiz Escudero novelty is a force to reckon with (shades of Obama imaging). His pre-announcement campaign appears to be engaging and the buzz is the young voters are being moved. I guess this is to be expected since his youthful appearances have become a novelty. The downside is he loses the interest of a number quickly with his lyrical monotone delivery in Tagalog. Also, he has not seen the inside of the lion’s den where political predators can make mincemeat of him in seconds, after all it’s still not the official campaign period. So, his true mettle remains to be tested. With all the coyness he manifested, my sense is, he will take the plunge (and be the next “flavor of the month”) with Loren Legarda likely taking the co-driver’s seat. The final reckoning for him is: Will Danding Cojuangco doles out enough for his campaign kitty? Those close to the SMC and NPC boss say they doubt it.
Manny Villar is still on top of the heap as surveys tell us. His regular TV pre-campaign ads obviously hit the mark among his intended target audience, the masa and the working class. I would expect, however, his survey numbers to slide some once the final line-up of presidentiables is firmed. Noynoy, Chiz and Noli will undoubtedly have an impact once they come out with guns-a-blazing. His clear advantage is he has made his case far ahead of everyone in the pack from logistics to platform. He remains confident he will be the final “flavor of the month”!
Will Erap run? My sense is he will unless the other determined opposition candidates individually offer him compromises to restore his grand political standing and his lost political clout before he was convicted and pardoned. His barnstorming has fed his ego enough to make himself believe that he is sorely wanted by the masa. God help us. What is certain though is, should he relent, his endorsement of any presidentiable will make a helluva difference, like the Iglesia vote.
Noli de Castro, the forever ‘in-the-middle-man’, remains the only viable candidate who can give opposition bets a good fight. But if he keeps up with his ‘independent stance’ he will certainly lose by knock out in the prelims. The tempting Lakas-Kampi offer is his best option but it won’t be a walk in the park for him. His dilemma throughout the campaign would be how to respond to the question: “Do you believe Gloria and Mike did not steal?” Whatever his response would be will be taken with lots of grains of salt, that’s for sure. (Despite the professed groundswell of support for Defense Sec. Gibo Teodoro, it’s not likely that his numbers will see a dramatic bump anytime soon). With Noli eventually as the anointed, Bayani Fernando and Teodoro will just likely lick their wounds and take the backseats for now.
Eddie Villanueva, for all his preaching about righteousness in governance, is not likely going to be a major contender. His political stock lies in his endorsement, not as a player.
Dick Gordon, the flying eagle, has failed to soar high enough to convince himself that his candidacy will get wide support. What he can be certain of is he will keep his senate seat if he guns for reelection to the senate. My sense is, he will.
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PANGASINAN DERBY. In the province, Rep. Victor Agbayani, banking on his family’s political goodwill over the past decades, will seek to give Guv Spines a run for his money. For all intents and purposes, his political mettle was never measured in the last election when his wife lost to Guv Spines. What he lost was a proxy war so 2010 will be a period of reckoning for the Agbayani magic.
Guv Spines is one who always takes his battles seriously. The day he armed barangay kapitans with a shotgun each, I surmised it had something to do with 2010. While I didn’t think it was his intent to organize an armed group whose members would have the rank of a ‘captain’, it was obviously calculated to win loyalties. His mass distribution of PhilHealth cards was not about landing international recognition but solid votes from the masa. With these, Cong. Vic may very be the one who will be given a run for his money.
A long shot gubernatorial candidate is former Speaker Joe de V. Many continue to be enamored with his political stars, his usual grand vision and track record of infra development in the province, particularly in his 4th district. But his wife Gina’s political debut in his district and his son Joey’s planned foray into the senate race may very well keep him from biting more than he can chew. But many concede, his entry will completely change the given political equation today. That may be so.
More next week.
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YOUR PUNCH ON L.E.D. In case you’ve missed it, PUNCH has harnessed another technology to keep people abreast of current local news. The huge LED sign owned by USATV installed on the pedestrian overpass fronting the CSI Market Square on A.B. Fernandez Ave. in Dagupan City has began featuring PUNCH news heads of the current and next issues. Another first for a community newspaper in the country, thanks to USATV for accepting our offer for exclusive partnership. Your PUNCH was also the first community paper in the country to have its website in 1997, in partnership with Bitstop.
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