Mandatory conscription
By Virginia Jasmin Pasalo
FRANCIS Fukuyama, a US political scientist urged Taiwan to rethink its defense policy and reinstate mandatory military conscription. Fukuyama said that “Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which was generally perceived as unthinkable even few months back, is now a distinct possibility.”
In his keynote address entitled “Threats to Liberalism and the Liberal World Order” during a virtual forum organized by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation, Fukuyama urged the Taiwanese to emulate Ukraine in its willingness to fight for their freedom, observing that the Taiwanese have a lackadaisical attitude towards a “significant threat to Taiwan’s future and independence in event of a Chinese invasion”.
Fukuyama added that the Taiwanese should not depend on the belief that the United States would come to their rescue in the event of a possible Chinese invasion, as the US will only do so if and when Taiwanese are willing to fight for themselves. Taiwan is being primed to prepare itself against China’s aggression, using the circumstances that happened in Ukraine.
While it is true that China is a bigger threat than Russia to the US and The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the circumstances that led to the conflict are not the same. Ukraine, a country where Russian ethnic groups also reside, present a threat to Russia as it is located in its immediate border and had applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008. This plan was shelved by Ukraine following the 2010 presidential election where Viktor Yanukovych won, who preferred to keep the country non-aligned. In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comedian with no prior political experience was installed. Under his term, on 12 June 2020, Ukraine joined NATO’s enhanced opportunity partner interoperability program, a new status that, according to an official NATO statement, “does not prejudge any decisions on NATO membership”. NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance among 28 European countries and 2 North American countries established in the aftermath of World War II to enforce the treaty signed 04 April 1949.
The new status alarmed Russia, especially after Ukraine has installed a bio weapons facility, which it targeted to bomb, after asking residents to leave the area. This is not the circumstance of Taiwan. While the possibility of an attack from China is probable, China with its trajectory to lead in Asian economic prosperity did not engage in the occupation of Taiwan, which it could have easily won, given its military facility and proximity. To occupy Taiwan at this time will drive away countries as potential partners in its pursuit to lead, in economic terms within its geopolitical sphere of influence.
The mandatory conscription will not enhance Taiwan’s capacity to deter an attack, but will fuel the suspicion that it is being used to fight a battle that will make the sacrifice for the larger war being waged by powerful hegemons to prevent the rise of regional hegemons that would challenge the authority they have held for so long. The move to sow panic is intended to defocus China’s growing economic drive in the region, and deter its possible alliance with Russia.
Similarly, there is a need to review foreign policy strategies to defend the Philippines. The proposal by Sara Duterte, a vice-presidential candidate, to require mandatory military service once the youth turn 18 years old will not enhance the capacity of Filipinos to defend themselves against a potential aggressor. Instead, we can explore possibilities of joint economic endeavors with China and with our ASEAN neighbors, especially in contested areas.
No to war. War only serves those who need to sell arms to shore up failing economies and preserve prevailing hegemons masquerading as liberators.
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