Phivolcs: Pangasinan, Dagupan will have its own “Big One’
FROM EAST ZAMBALES FAULT
A senior official of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PhiVolcs) warned officials of the provincial government, and of towns and cities of a “Big One” that can hit any part of Pangasinan and must prepare for it.
Dr. Leonila Bautista, a senior scientist of Phivolcs, said the ‘Big One’, may not come from the Valley Fault in Metro Manila, but from one of the three active geological threats surrounding the province, namely, the Manila Trench west of Bolinao, the East Zambales Fault and the San Manuel Fault.
Of the three, she said, the one that would likely generate the ‘Big One’ for Pangasinan and Dagupan will be the East Zambales Fault.
Bautista told newsmen at the sideline of Phivolcs Education, Information and Communications campaign on earthquakes and tsunamis at CSI Stadia on January 16 that an estimated 33,000 people will die in Metro Manila if the Valley Fault moves and generates a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.
“No, you (Pangasinan, particularly Dagupan City) will not be affected by the Big One in Metro Manila in case the Valley Fault moves ,’ Bautista warned. “You will have your own ‘Big One’ that will come from the East Zambales Fault.”
The death estimate in Pangasinan by Sarena Tarongoy, also of Phivolcs, if the East Zambales Fault moves and generates a 7.4 magnitude earthquake is 25,000 from main ground shaking alone, adding that many more will be expected to die from subsequent and prolonged ground shaking. (Dagupan City’s death toll is estimated to be 190).
According to Bautista, the estimate is arrived at using a special application and is based on a night scenario when people are all at home comfortably sleeping in their homes. There will be more casualties if the earthquake occurs during the day when many will be in the malls, schools and churches.
Tarongoy said Dagupan’s biggest barangays, Bonuan Gueset and Pantal will likely have the most number of casualties.
Angelo Galvez Lanuza, also of Phivolcs, said barangays should aim to become UNESCO Tsunami-Ready Communities and must have a ready evacuation plan and evacuation centers because residents will only have five to 10 minutes to evacuate if a tsunami occurs.
Bautista said that in case the Manila Trench moves, it can generate a tsunami as high as seven meters and the water will flow a distance of four kilometers from the shore.
Mayor Belen Fernandez said she already entered into a Memorandum of Agreement with owners of tall buildings to agree to accommodate their neighbors fleeing from the tsunami. More owners are being engaged.
She will also order tsunami and earthquake drills in the barangays so that more people will know how to save themselves. (Leonardo Micua)
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