Phivolcs: Dagupan is safe
NO DAM BREAK SCENARIO
OFFICIALS of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) have given assurance that the San Roque Multi-purpose Dam Project (SRMDP) in San Manuel town can withstand earthquakes with even higher intensity ever seen here.
Phivolcs Deputy Director Bart Bautista and his fellow scientist Toto Bacolor, who were invited by the Dagupan city council on December 14 to give light on the issue, said the danger of a dam break resulting from an earthquake is practically nil.
Following the big flooding in early October caused by Typhoon “Pepeng” and aggravated by the sudden release of huge volumes of water from the dam, the Dagupan City government is drawing up a comprehensive evacuation plan, which includes a possible a dam-break scenario.
They gave the assurance notwithstanding the proximity of SRMDP to the San Manuel Fault which is just seven kilometers away from and Digdig Fault in Nueva Ecija, more than 40 kilometers away.
“There is nothing to worry about,” he said, “because when the dam was being planned, Phivolcs, through the late Dr. Raymundo Punongbayan, former director, was consulted on the design of the structure.”
Bautista supported the drafting of a comprehensive disaster preparedness plan, with the recommendation that the building code be enforced strictly to ensure that houses and buildings in Dagupan would be strong enough to withstand a high-intensity earthquake.
“We should keep a close watch on our building officials” he said, adding that there is an urgent need to review designs of houses and buildings to ensure that they adhere to the building code.
In Dagupan City, where the soil is considered to be soft, the provision of the building code requiring piling foundation for buildings higher than two stories must be observed, Bautista said.
Liquefaction occurred in Dagupan during the July 16, 1990 earthquake and he warned that it will likely happen again.
He told newsmen that the segment of the Philippine Fault, called Digdig Fault, moved during the July 16, 1990 earthquake and will not likely move again anytime soon because it was found to have a cycle of movement every 400 years.
On the other hand, the San Manuel Fault last moved in 1796 and has a cycle of 200 years, and so it could possibly move in the foreseeable future.
But based on Phivolcs studies, the shorter the cycle of a fault is, the weaker it is when it releases energy.
Bautista said the bigger cause for concern is the Valley Fault (formerly called Marikina Fault), which has a cycle of 200 to 400 years and it may be ripe for another movement.
He said preparations had already been undertaken in Metro Manila in anticipation of a movement in Valley Fault.–LM
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