THE Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued an El Niño Alert on Tuesday, May 02, citing the probability of the El Niño phenomenon hitting the country at 80 percent.

However, PAGASA said current data shows Northern Luzon, including Pangasinan, can expect only weak to medium disastrous impact of El Niño.

Gener Quitlong of the PAGASA Agno River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (ARBFFWC) in Rosales, clarified that the phenomenon is broken down into four thresholds, or intensities: Weak, Moderate, Strong, and Very Strong and these different thresholds determine how El Niño can affect water supplies and farmlands in an area.

A strong El Niño hitting the country is estimated at 30-percent probability.

On the projected 80 percent, probability of El Niño hitting the country, Quitlong said the country can already feel its effects starting June to August this year, and may extend up to first quarter of 2024.

El Niño conditions are currently being monitored at the Tropical Pacific region.

Quitlong further pointed out that not all El Niño events are the same.

Nationalgeographic.org said the intensity of El Niño events varies and are associated with worldwide climatic changes, from weak temperature increases with moderate local effects on weather and climate to very strong increases.

Meteorologists have defined El Niño as a naturally occurring climate oscillation event in the equatorial Pacific which returns every 2–7 years.

Based on most recent condition and model forecast, Quitlong said despite threats of drought and dry spells, the phenomenon could also bring about lower amounts of rainfall.

El Niño, however, could intensify incoming weather conditions – from Low Pressure Area to typhoons.

“Huwag nating asahan na maraming pagbuhos ng ulan ngayong June at July. Pero maaaring maging mas matindi ang mga bagyo natin”, Quitlong said. (Ahikam Pasion)

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