The indirect approach      

By Farah G. Decano

 

ON July 12, 2016, the Philippines gained a favorable decision from the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) against a superpower, China. The latter’s nine-dash line claim over the West Philippine Sea was declared invalid for two reasons: 1) The United Nations Convention of the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS), of which China is a signatory, invalidated all historical claims over the exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelf, and the high seas; and 2) it has no basis for the claim of historical rights.

The most difficult part for the Philippines, however, is not in winning but in enforcing the decision. How must one execute an arbitral award issued by an international body whose jurisdiction China does not recognize?  Is the PCA decision a mere pyrrhic victory?

It must be remembered the Philippines left the bilateral talks with China in order to submit the latter’s nine-dash line claim before the PCA.  For bilateral negotiations to yield a just and fair result, the two parties must be of equal standing in terms of military, economic, and geopolitical powers.  Compared to China, the Philippines is but a puny country on the global map.  At that time, the Philippine Government knew too well that, in world politics, might is still right.  It needed to rally international support. One consul-general assigned in the United States confessed that the international community did not immediately throw in their support for the Philippines when it filed the case before the PCA.  Due to the reputation established by our ancestors, the international community had reservations about the Philippine strategy. They   believed that, at the right price, our country’s legal team would eventually withdraw the arbitration case in its early stages.  The skepticism, however, turned into global admiration when the Philippines showed determination in pursuing the case. The same consul-general said, the Filipinos have regained respect from the international community.

Tucking the arbitral win in its pocket and the new international support it gained, was the Philippines ready to return to bilateral talks? A talk between equals?

Instead of harping on the strength of the Philippines, the Duterte Government, however, employed a different strategy in resolving the West Philippine Sea dispute.  In place of balancing of power between two sovereign states, the new Philippine Administration emphasized on the disparity of power between our country and China.  President Duterte who, by Constitution, determines foreign policy, has many times emphasized the country’s inability to engage in war against China.  He openly admitted his fear of offending China when he was asked about banning mainland Chinese from Wuhan in the early stages of the CoVid-19 spread.  Instead of fortifying international alliances, the present administration somehow managed to issue statements against its old ally, the United States.

Is the President employing what others call the indirect approach to the West Philippine sea issue?  Joshua Schwartz defines the indirect approach as degrading your opponent’s ability to resist before the battle occurs. It calls for “dislocating” the enemy, or disturbing his equilibrium, both physically and psychologically. This indirect approach aims for the adversary’s least resistance. It offers friendship to the powerful challenger so that no strong force or influence may be used against the country.

How far have we gone in this indirect approach?

Interestingly, there is an influx of Chinese tourists and workers entering the Philippines. This signifies our more welcoming stance towards them.  We allow hundreds of thousands of Chinese POGO workers in the country.

There are also attempts to establish local government and school sister-relations with counterparts in China. Former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio advised that, although there is nothing wrong with these sister-city or sister-university agreements, we must ensure that these agreements provide for reciprocity. He explained that if we allowed China to build a Confucius Library in our school, then the sister-agreement should allow a Philippine school to build a Rizal Library in the counterpart Chinese school.

This indirect strategy in our foreign relations with any superpower should be carefully and skillfully used as this approach also has its dangers. We should tread this approach cautiously, without paving the way for a creeping invasion.  We must ascertain and ensure that our national identity and sovereignty will not be sacrificed in the altar of any foreign country.

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