DATA ADVISORS POLL

DAGUPAN CITY — It’s a double whammy for the Cojuangcos as early polls show that the Espinos are statistically ahead of the double-race in Pangasinan.

That’s what the recent polling of Data Advisors tend to show amid widespread speculations about the race for the gubernatorial and vice governorship posts, and the fate of the two powerful political families in the province.

The survey showed Board Member Amado “Pogi” Espino III prevailing over former Congressman Mark Cojuangco with 7 out of 10 voters going for Espino, while incumbent Gov. Amado Espino, Jr.  is heavily favored over incumbent Rep. Kimi Cojuangco for the position of representative in the Fifth District of Pangasinan with 6 out of 10 voters going for the elder Espino.

This recent province wide poll was conducted by Data Advisors, a Quezon City-based private polling firm for the period September 24 to 28 in three cities and forty four municipalities of Pangasinan among 1,500 voters.

In the expected one-on-one contest for governor, the younger Espino earned an overall rating of 73.6 percent against Cojuangco’s 26.4 percent, a margin of 47.4 percentage points.

Moreover, BM Espino scored favorably in all of the six legislative districts of the province. In the first district Espino earned 66.7 percent while Cojuangco had 33.3 percent. In the second district the result was 82.5 percent to 17.5 percent in favor of Espino. Respondents polled in third district also went for Espino, 82 percent against 18 percent. In the fourth district the result was 79.3 percent for Espino and 20.7 percent for Cojuangco.

Interestingly, in the fifth district, known bailiwick and “home district” of Cojuangco, the younger Espino scored 70 percent against Cojuangco’s 30 percent. In the sixth district Espino earned 77.5 percent against Cojuangco’s 22.5 percent.

In his adopted hometown of Sison, former congressman Mark Cojuangco scored 13.3 percent compared to BM Espino’s 86.7 percent preference rating.. On the other hand, the younger Espino received 100 percent of the votes polled right in his own hometown of Bautista where he served as mayor for nine years.

 

Table 6  Preference for Governor ONE-ON-ONE Contest

ONE-ON-ONE CONTEST FOR  GOVERNOR       Pangasinan is voting for	OVERALL	1ST DISTRICT	2ND DISTRICT	3RD DISTRICT	4TH DISTRICT	5TH DISTRICT	6TH DISTRICT
Board Member Amado “Pogi” ESPINO III	76.3	66.7	82.5	82.0	79.3	70.0	77.5
Former Cong. Mark COJUANGCO	23.7	33.3	17.5	18.0	20.7	30.0	22.5

        Source: Data Advisors

In the contest for the congressional seat of the fifth district, now occupied by Rep. Kimi Cojuangco, the elder Espino earned 65.8 percent overall rating against the 34.2 per cent earned by the incumbent Rep. Cojuangco.  

In the municipality of Sison, where the Cojuangcos reside, and where Representative Kimi completed a full three term as municipal mayor before going to congress, she received a voter preference rating of 13.4 percent compared to Gov. Espino’s 86.6 percent.

On the other hand, in Gov. Espino’s hometown of Bautista, 93 percent will support Espino’s run for congress, while 7 percent will go for Rep. Kimi.

At the time the poll was made, it was not practical to get the voter preferences for the congressional seats in the other districts, since besides the incumbent congressmen, there are, so far, no contenders that have announced any interest to run against the incumbents.

“Mahaba pa naman ang panahon at marami pang pwedeng mangyari sa susunod na anim na buwan,” said Art Valenzuela, managing director of the polling firm.

“It will be good to track these races on a monthly basis because a lot of logistics and political actions are expected to move very, very fast leading to Election Day in May next year, as they now do, and more so after the filing by the aspirants of their respective certificates of candidacy.

It will be recalled that in the 2013 contest for governor, the same polling firm predicted with fair accuracy, and almost to the decimals, the victory and winning margin of the elder Espino over former Alaminos City Mayor Hernani Braganza.

In the contest for vice governor, incumbent Gov. Ferdie Calimlim polled an overall rating of 84.8 percent against his expected rival, and Mark Cojuangco’s running, mate Mayor Roy Macanlalay, who earned 15.2 percent overall.

Table 8  Preference for Vice Governor Show Card

 

ONE-ON-ONE CONTEST FOR VICE GOVERNOR Pangasinan is voting for	OVERALL	1ST DISTRICT	2ND DISTRICT	3RD DISTRICT	4TH DISTRICT	5TH DISTRICT	6TH DISTRICT
Vice Gov. Jose Ferdinand CALIMLIM JR.	84.8	81.7	87.5	68.5	86.5	95.0	89.9
Calasiao Mayor Mark Roy MACANLALAY	15.2	18.3	12.5	31.5	13.5	5.0	10.1

        Source: Data Advisors

A total of 1,500 respondents were polled for the position of governor while 271 respondents were interviewed for the district position in the fifth district with sampling frames distributed on weighted averages in each of the three cities and 44 municipalities of the province. The poll for governor had an error margin of 2.8 percent while that of district representative 3.5 percentage points.

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