Experience will win it for Pacquiao 

By Al S. Mendoza 

 

WILL Manny Pacquiao win today?

Of course, he will.

But on three conditions.

One, that he is in tip-top shape.

Two, that he will not be too over confident.

Three, that he won’t get hit by a lucky punch.

If Pacquiao is properly trained, he remains lethal with his punches.

And for him to be properly trained means there was no cramming in his preparation.

Otherwise, a training done in haste (did it even last 8 weeks, the most ideal training period?) could result in a half-baked conditioning regimen.

We all know that Pacquiao had been very diligent doing his duties as Senator of the republic.

And that came just nearly prior to the announcement of his fight against Australian Jeff Horn in Brisbane, Australia.

Remember that he had chaired the Senate committee that heard Gina Lopez’s failed bid to become Environment Secretary?

That did not only take a lot of Pacquiao’s precious time allotted for training, it also drained the Fighting Senator virtually dry—mentally and physically.

That is why it is my fervent hope that he was able to overcome those grueling days of hearing on Gina’s case.

It is not easy putting one’s self back in the proper frame of mind, in the correct stamina mode, especially considering that Pacquiao is not that young anymore.

At 38, and with nearly 100 fights across his name including his amateur bouts, his body could only take so much beating.

OK, Horn is an underdog because he has fought only 17 times.

Even if he is unbeaten, that does not make Horn as great and as tough as Pacquiao.

For one, Pacquiao is an unprecedented 8-division world champion while Horn, 29, is still crown-less.

In 67 fights, Pacquiao has knocked out 38 foes compared to Horn’s only 11 KO wins.

Experience is Pacquiao’s No. 1 advantage and this is where Horn will have his most acid test thus far as the Aussie has yet to meet a fighter of Pacquiao’s caliber.

As Pacquiao joked: “Horn may be a school teacher, but this time, I will be his teacher in the ring.”

This is where my No. 3 condition will come in:  That Pacquiao doesn’t get hit by a lucky punch.

If Pacquiao’s 38-year-old legs can sustain a long drawn-out battle, his experience should easily give him a win on points.

By sticking to that, he will avoid the over-confidence syndrome that resulted to his 6th-round knockout to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012.

Pacquiao was leading on all the judges’ scorecards when he got knocked out by Marquez’s lucky punch with a second left in the sixth.

Because Horn had kayoed 11 of his 16 previous victims (one draw), he, sure, has terrific power, too.

Horn may be inexperienced, yes, but in every boxing match, the lucky punch is always there to inflict havoc to the unwary.

My fearless forecast?

Pacquiao to win by knockout within 5 rounds.

Otherwise, he will end up with a points victory again—as he did in the last eight years.

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