If surveys are right, Duterte is our president tomorrow

By Al S. Mendoza

 

IF Rodrigo Duterte does not win as president tomorrow, the nation will be in deep shock?

And if Manny Pacquiao is not a senator by tomorrow, the boxing gods will be as shocked as well?

I ask because going into the campaign homestretch, Duterte had surged into the lead way ahead of his four rivals.

And Pacquiao had likewise overtaken many of his opponents in a rather surprising turn of events.

From being tied at Nos. 8-12, Pacquiao leapfrogged to No. 3 in surveys barely a week before Election Day.

I am not a strong believer in surveys.

But like pestering flies in summer, the surveys are also with us in every election season.

If they are evils, they are necessary evils that we need to learn to live with.

And so, if only for the record, let’s face the music.

Duterte has been packing them in, leading his foes in all surveys by big margins that somehow seem to make him the surefire successor of P-Noy.

He wasn’t leading the surveys when he was caught cursing the Pope.

But not long after, Duterte saw himself grabbing the lead with still about four weeks left before May 9.

Leading comfortably, he would next be accused of making a rape joke that drew severe criticisms.

But in the next survey, Duterte’s stock even rose to unimaginable heights.

Castigated by ambassadors from Australia and the United States amid the rape joke, Duterte fought back and called the bluff by threatening to sever diplomatic ties with both countries if he gets elected.

When the next surveys came, Duterte found himself even zooming sky-high that, if this were a car race, his rivals were left cussing while eating his dusts.

A little over two weeks before tomorrow’s election, on April 19-24, Duterte got 33 percent of voters nationwide in the Pulse Asia survey.

Duterte led by a huge 11 percent over Grace Poe at 22 percent, with Mar Roxas third at 20 percent and Jojo Binay fourth at 18 percent.

If we go to the Social Weather Station survey of April 18-20, Duterte also got 33 percent, Poe 24 percent, Roxas 19 percent and Binay 14 percent.

The biggest surprise was among the wealthy and intelligentsia from the ABC class of voters, where Duterte also led by a commanding 37 percent against Roxas’ 23 percent, Binay’s 16 percent and Poe’s only 12 percent.

And look at this: Even to the poorest of the poor, including Class E, Duterte was their top choice with 31 percent, Poe 24 percent, Roxas 22 percent and Binay 18 percent.

With all the survey results pointing to a Duterte victory tomorrow, how then could he lose?

But then again, surveys are just that: They are nothing but indicators.  Unproven.Remember 2010?

Remember 2010?

Roxas was leading Binay all the way in the surveys but, after the election that year, Binay won as vice president.

Thus, if Duterte is not our president after May 9, do not be surprised.

Surveys are just that: Hearsay until proven right.

(For your comments and reactions, please email to: punch.sunday@gmail.com)

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